A Hungry Bear
(Signs of the Time - January 1999)
A byline in the November 28, 1998 Economist magazine accurately sums up the current dismal situation in Russia. The byline reads: "A sick president, a sick economy, and a weak government mean a miserable winter for Russia. It will probably get even worse." The situation in Russia has gone from bad to worse so that the once-proud nation is heading into the usual long cold winter without adequate food supplies.
It’s about food
The question for the Kremlin now has nothing to do with the expansion of NATO or the
lack of capital infusion into the nation. The single major issue is whether or not
Russians will have enough food. The New York Times, November 7, 1998 reported: "It
is a race against time. Food reserves are dwindling. Remote cities have been left without
heat. And the massive logistical task of moving grain, meat and fuel is well behind
schedule. It is a mark of Russia’s anxiety that Prime Minister Yevgeni
Primakov’s aides put aside their pride on Friday and concluded an agreement to buy
$625 million worth of grain, meat, milk, soybeans and other food assistance."
The article continues: "Even now Russia is plagued by regional shortages. Russia’s agriculture ministry has reported shortfalls in 22 of the nation's 89 regions. Russia’s disastrous harvest -- the worst in 45 years -- is just part of the reason. The tendency of the nation’s regions to go their own way, lax government management and Russia’s financial crisis have turned a difficult situation into an increasingly desperate one."
Grain producing regions have been hoarding their food supply. The banking system is in virtual collapse and fuel shortages have delayed the distribution of what food is available to regions that do not produce their own grain.
The New York Times reports: "Distribution and quality are big problems, said Victor Lishchenko, a leading agricultural specialist. The nation is vast and many local governors practically do not let the grain out of their borders. Quantity is not the only problem. The quality of Russia’ store of grain is uneven, diminishing its value for making bread or raising livestock."
The decline in domestic food production has been compounded by a sharp decline in imports, one of the many consequences of the nation’s plummeting currency. Before its financial crisis, Russia imported more than 40 percent of its food. But imports have fallen to a fraction of that, and the foreign food that is being shipped is being sold at skyrocketing prices.
Currently everyone in Russia is feeling the pinch and matters are only going to be exacerbated with the impending onset of winter. The annual consumption of meat has declined to about 95 pounds a person, less than half of US levels. Since the crisis, Russia’s pasta factories have been working overtime, a sign that Russians are changing their diet. As one may appreciate, Russia’s needy have been particularly hard hit by this impending famine. The New York Times reports: "Relief groups are besieged with reports of orphanages that have five rubles a day (about 30 cents) per child to buy food and prisons that spend even less on their inmates."
Not only food but also heat
Food is not the only problem. The Russian government is also struggling to keep its
citizens supplied with heat and power. Russia’s Fuel and Energy ministry said this
week that it had only received a meager three percent of the money it was due to buy fuel
for the nation’s northern territories. As the food and fuel crisis has grown, the
Kremlin has begrudgingly recognized the seriousness of the situation. To further compound
matters, it was reported November 5, 1998, that the Russian government will not pay its
foreign debts on a timely basis and is seeking to re-negotiate the loans.
- In order to help relieve the situation, the struggling government has appealed to several nations, seeking deliveries of food and other imperative supplies. Noting the U.S. response, the New York Times reported November 5: "American officials said Tuesday that at least 3.1 million metric tons of food would be provided under an accord being negotiated with Moscow. Much of the food would be provided free. The rest would be sold with generous long-term financing."
Interestingly, it is predicted by Western experts that Russia has enough food to survive the winter but that the country’s food reserves will be dangerously depleted by spring. There are fears some of Russia’s remote regions will be cut off from needed supplies as soon as early winter.
This once-proud nation of Russia is in the process of being humbled. A former "cold war" enemy has had to provide a basic necessity so that this militarily powerful nation can feed its people. The question we posed in both the October and November, 1998, issues of this magazine has yet to be answered. Could a conquest to the Middle East be made for the purpose of helping Russia restore pride and seize great wealth? Only God can provide the answer. However, with the situation approaching a critical stage, combined with Russia’s other economic woes, this may provide the impetus that is required to force Russia in a southerly direction.
George Rayner