Big Changes in the Mid-East
(Signs of the Time - July 2000)
The death of Syrian President Hafez al-Assad once again draws our attention to the Middle East. While U.S. President Bill Clinton is attempting to leave the presidency with a peace legacy in his portfolio, the peace process seesaws back and forth. Israel has withdrawn from a five-mile wide section of land in Lebanon while across the Jordan the leadership in Syria must struggle to stabilize itself. This months article will look at the changes that have taken place in Syria, Lebanon and Israel with particular emphasis being placed on the peace process.
Lebanon
For the past 22 years, Israel has occupied a five-mile wide section of their northern
neighbor, Lebanon. This was a security buffer as Lebanon experienced both a civil war
during these years and general unrest. During May 2000, Israel unilaterally retreated from
the "security buffer" and currently all is quiet along the front. In
June, the United Nations said that it is close to setting its seal on the proceedings by
certifying Israel’s full withdrawal.
Teams of soldiers, cartographers and mine-sweepers have worked their way along the front line, trying to chart the old international frontier. The Israeli army, eager to earn the inspectors’ approval, has been demolishing fortifications that straddle the border. It blew up a communications mast which stood a few meters inside Lebanon on May 29, and other minor structures are to receive similar treatment.
The Economist Magazine reported on June 5, 2000 : "Israel, too, is celebrating the fact that the withdrawal, however hasty and sloppy, was carried out without any Israeli casualties at all. The approval rating of the Prime Minister, Ehud Barak, has soared, and he is now turning his attention to the Palestinians in talks with Bill Clinton. Even the embarrassment of the army’s unsentimental abandonment of its Lebanese allies is quickly dissipating as the government offers cash handouts and resettlement promises to the mercenaries and their families who straggled in as refugees."
The Economist continued to report, "The Lebanese army has now reimposed restrictions on travel to the former occupied zone, making it difficult for trouble-makers to get near the border. Although the government, in deference to its ally Syria, refuses to send troops to ‘guarantee Israel’s security,’ it has filled the border area with policemen. And Hizbullah, the guerrilla group that spearheaded resistance to the Israeli occupation, is also behaving responsibly. The gunmen who swarmed through the area in the first days after liberation have disappeared. Instead, bulldozers bearing Hizbullah banners are building earth barricades to keep cars away from the most sensitive spots along the frontier."
One irony of the situation is that the Israeli government handed out machineguns to residents of border villages. The peace is being maintained by humble villagers carrying high-powered weapons for which training has not been provided.
Syria
On June 10, 2000, the peace process may have taken one step backwards with the death
of Syrian leader Hafez al-Assad. Although the ruling Bath party moved quickly to appoint a
new President, Assad’s son Bashar, it may be several months if not years before the
new leader places his stamp on a peace mission. Although Mr. Assad insisted that Israel
would have to return all land, including the Golan Heights, if peace were to be achieved,
the peace process has moved forward significantly. Upon assuming the Presidency, Bashar
Assad will have to first and foremost assume control of his rulership. It is questionable
that peace with neighboring Israel will be at the top of his list of priorities.
Former President Assad ruled Syria with an iron fist for 30 years, it is unlikely his son will command the same level of respect as his father without some form of bloodshed. The son, a 34-year-old eye doctor by training, has been received into the annals of Syrian power rather hurriedly. The New York Times, June 12, 2000, wrote that Bashar "cemented his claim to his father’s job as Mr. Assad secured a number of new titles and positions today. Abdel-Halim Khaddam, one of Syria’s two vice presidents who are nominally running the country, named him the commander of Syria’s armed forces at the same time promoting him from the rank of colonel to lieutenant-general."
In addition, the regional command or governing body of the ruling Bath Party unanimously nominated him for the presidency. Parliament must also endorse the nomination and set a date for a referendum to confirm the choice. The Parliament has already amended the country’s constitution to reduce the minimum age for a president to 34 from 40, briskly eliminating a legal obstacle to Mr. Assad’s ascension.
However swift Bashar Assad’s ascension to the Presidency may be, he faces an uphill battle for ruling the nation in the style of his father. The New York Times reported: "The young Mr. Assad, a relative neophyte who held no official position in the government or the party while his father was alive, is unlikely to command anything close to the independence and absolute authority of the deceased ruler. The uncertainty caused by the sudden death of his father rippled beneath statements of support for Mr. Assad issued by Mideast leaders today."
God’s hand at work
Whether or not the peace process will be impacted remains to be seen. God works in the
lives of men to ensure that His will is fulfilled. Former President Assad ruled and
controlled his nation with absolute dominance so that peace was only an option if it was
Assad’s desire. By all accounts his desire was to hold fast on his claim to the Golan
Heights. This resulted in a breakdown in mid January of the peace process. Despite a
meeting between President Clinton and the late President Assad in Geneva in March this
logjam was never resolved.
The younger Mr. Assad inherits the foreign policy issues that occupied his father, but may not have the same freedom to strike a deal with Israel. He has also been left an unsettled situation in Lebanon where the abrupt Israeli withdrawal put pressure on Syria to rein in the militias that it had supported in the formerly occupied zone in the south. How the Lord will orchestrate the next steps toward a political climate ripe for the Savior’s return is of the keenest interest to His people.
George Rayner