Turkey at the Crossroads
(Signs of the Time - April 2001)
Situated at the geographic crossroads of Europe and Asia, Turkey is a vital part of Bible prophecy -- it is clear it will be part of the northern forces which invade Israel. This month’s article will look at recent developments in Turkey and conclude this nation is moving away from the European Union and isolating itself from its former allies.
EU membership?
A few months ago, it was noted in the Tidings that the European Union (EU) was
in the process of quilting together a European army. Since Turkey is not part of the EU,
it will not have access to these "defensive" forces. Within the past few
months, Turkey has experienced a financial crisis and been accused of human rights
violations. These issues makes it very difficult for Turkey to join the EU and, in turn,
have access to the newly-created EU army.
In the past two weeks, the financial crisis has caused a crashing currency, soaring interest rates, surging inflation and government paralysis -- all because of a political temper tantrum. And the crisis is far from over. Turkey’s banking system is poised to go up in flames for the second time in four months -- and international lenders are desperately trying to cobble together a US$25-billion emergency loan to stabilize the situation.
Turkey’s troubles began with a bitter personality clash between Bulent Ecevit, the 76-year-old prime minister who heads a shaky three-party coalition, and Ahmet Necdet Sezer, Turkey’s 56-year-old president and former head of the constitutional court. In a power struggle symbolic of Turkey’s national divisions, the two men have clashed repeatedly over the political and economic reforms required for their country to join the European Union and to secure a US$4-billion aid package from the International Monetary Fund to restructure the economy and banking system.
As reported in the New York Times on March 4, 2001, "As Mr. Ecevit has cautiously steered Turkey toward entry into the European Union and begun to privatize state industries, Mr. Sezer has pushed for a faster and fuller anti-corruption campaign, and threatened to reactivate an audit body he controls to review the books of three state banks. Their differences led to a recent shoving match between the two men who threw a copy of the constitution at each other before an infuriated Mr. Ecevit stormed out of the meeting."
Turkey in a critical position
The ensuing meltdown has sent ripples of anxiety through the world’s markets,
resurrecting memories of Thailand’s economic collapse which triggered the Asian
financial crisis of 1997.
But a Turkish economic disaster could have far more serious consequences than the Asian flu. Turkey is a crucial NATO partner and the keystone state in western attempts to restrain Iraq. It is also the economic lifeline for countries trying to rise from the wreckage of the former Soviet Union in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and it’s the gateway to oil and gas development in the Caspian basin.
Turkey also controls the headwaters of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, which supply Syria and Iraq.
Turkey’s 1996 crisis
Turkey’s floundering banking system is saddled with more than US$18-billion in
foreign currency debt, much of it held by German financial institutions. In 1996, Turkey
endured economic chaos, political paralysis and the collapse of an International Monetary
Fund reform package, the country was racked by hyperinflation and lurched to the brink of
war with Greece. At the same time, the political popularity of militant Muslims surged,
placing severe strains on the country’s delicate secularist democracy, which has seen
three military coups in the past 40 years.
Today’s crisis
The Turkish stock market has fallen by more than 20%, and the wobbly financial system
seized up when the crisis began, as investors dumped Turkish lira in favor of foreign
currency. More than US$5-billion was shipped out of the country in a single day.
When the government stopped defending the lira, the currency sank like a stone, losing 30% of its value, wiping billions off people’s savings and slashing the buying power of personal checks.
Interest rates soared overnight to 7,000%, and Standard and Poor’s, the bond rating agency, slashed Turkey’s credit rating to the same level as Mongolia and Paraguay.
Human rights watch
Prison reform, including cessation of frequent torture and abuse of prisoners and
detainees, is high on a list of issues to be addressed before Turkey can even begin
negotiations for EU inclusion. Furthermore, strong anti-EU statements from Prime Minister
Bulent Ecevit have done nothing to palliate the situation.
In late November, Ecevit issued a harsh warning to the European Union saying Turkey would not be fooled by "nonsense" on Kurdish minority rights. Turkey’s 12 million Kurds are not recognized as a minority and broadcasting and publications in Kurdish are banned. Ecevit also pointed a finger at the EU for meddling in Turkey’s long-standing territorial disputes with Greece. Chief among the issues is Cyprus, which has been divided into ethnic Greek and Turkish zones since the 1974 Turkish invasion. Ecevit was unhappy that Cyprus had been given a separate bid for EU membership. He also said the EU had "duped" Turkey into believing its territorial disputes with Greeks would not be an impediment to negotiations, only to reinstate them as requirements. In remarks published in the New York Times in December, 2000, Turkey’s justice minister said prison riots were triggered by instructions sent from Belgium. The EU is based in Brussels, and the comments reflect increasing suspicion in Turkey that groups it considers "terrorist" at home can find sanctuary in the countries of Western Europe.
Turkey applied for EU membership on April 14, 1987 – yet some fourteen years later they still remain on the outside looking in. As the EU continues to head along a divergent path from Turkey, it seems unlikely Turkey will be allowed to join the Union. As such, they may look elsewhere to form alliances or partnerships in line with biblical prophecy. Bible students look to the day when the nations will align themselves as outlined in various latter-day prophecies. It is these things that encourage us to continue to watch and pray for the soon return of our Lord and Master, Jesus Christ.
George Rayner