Russia and Iraq
(Signs of the Time - September 2001)
During the past several months, the world news reports have focused on the continued Israeli-Palestinian conflicts. The world press has tended to ignore other pertinent news regarding Middle East tensions. Case in point, on August 7, 2001, the United States and Britain bombed Iraqi anti-aircraft positions. Hardly a mention was made in the press of this development. As well, Russia has been striving steadily to improve relations between themselves and Iraq. This month’s article will look at developing relations and growing political alignments that are taking place between Iraq and the western powers and Iraq and the northern power.
Russia-Iraq
In early August, Russia used their veto power as a permanent member of the UN Security
Council to block a US-British proposal to enact so-called smart sanctions against Iraq. As
could be expected, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein praised Russia for opposing the
sanctions. Iraq’s trade minister said Russia would now be given priority in contracts
and commercial transactions with Iraq. The major reason for Russia’s realignment away
from the western powers and toward Iraq centers around one central issue - oil.
As reported in Stratfor on-line August 6, 2001: "Russia opposed the new sanctions because it is currently the primary energy producer operating in Iraq, and it has the inside track on potential oil deals in the country. The proposal would have damaged Moscow’s position by opening up new opportunities for U.S. and European oil firms. Russia will continue efforts to keep western companies out, assuring its status as the dominant foreign power in Iraq’s energy sector and increasing its strategic influence in the Persian Gulf. Russia has made a number of deals in the past few years to strengthen its presence in Iraq’s energy sector, with an eye toward Baghdad's 112 billion barrels of oil and 110 trillion cubic feet of natural gas."
Since UN sanctions were placed on Iraq after the Gulf war, Russia has invested heavily in the Iraqi oil and gas business. According to the Interfax News Agency, Lukoil (a Russian based oil company) invested some $4 billion in 1997 in the West Qurma oil field. This oil field is extremely important in that it is estimated to hold 6 billion tons in reserve. And most recently another Russian firm, Tetneft, was awarded a contract to drill 33 wells across Iraq. These investments have resulted in a total of one-third of U.N.-monitored Iraqi oil exports being sold through Russian companies. What is not known, however, is exactly how much oil Russian companies are smuggling out to the west. Last year alone, as reported in Stratfor on-line, Russia is also allegedly involved - along with Jordan, Turkey, Syria and Iran - in illegally smuggling Iraqi oil. At least two Russian oil tankers suspected of such activities were detained last year in the Persian Gulf. The black market sales from smuggling were a primary target of the revised sanctions.
As reported in the August 7, 2001, Financial Times: "Russia can’t afford to let Western oil companies, which have better resources and equipment, reduce its share of the Iraqi oil market. Iraqi oil is closer to market than Russian oil and is cheaper to produce - $2.50 per barrel compared to $4 per barrel, not including high taxes and shipping costs." In all probability Russia will continue to oppose revised UN sanctions because the longer the current prohibitions remain in place, the tighter Russia’s grip on Iraqi oil will be in the future. Should the lifting of sanctions take place, Russia will be far ahead of all competing nations attempting to enter the region. These two strange bedfellows are quickly becoming friends and most likely will continue to grow and expand their partnership arrangement.
U.S. and Britain target Iraq
Over the skies of northern Iraq, an incredible cat and mouse game has been playing
out. In February of this year, American and British plans flew strikes against Iraqi radar
stations and command centers, virtually destroying the northern bases. However, in the
past six months, Iraq has spent a considerable amount of effort in improving their air
defenses and rebuilding their installations. As reported in the August 4, 2001, New
York Times: "It does appear that Iraq has been successful in quantitatively
and qualitatively improving their air defense, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald H.
Rumsfeld said during a news conference."
These improvements have led to Iraq testing the waters and provoking those nations enforcing the no-fly zone. According to the U.S. Pentagon and as reported in the New York Times, provocations defined as firing antiaircraft artillery and surface-to-air missiles, as well as locking on to planes with the radar that controlled those weapons had improved dramatically. "There were 370 incidents of that kind by the Iraqi military in the southern zone so far this year compared with 221 in all of 2000, the Pentagon said. Iraqi provocations in northern Iraq totaled 62 so far this year, compared with 145 last year." As part of the stepped-up efforts against Iraq, U.S. Air Force and British planes bombed near the northern city of Mosul on August 7, 2001. Iraqi officials said civil and service installations were hit; the U.S. European Command said an air defense site was hit in self-defense after Iraq launched surface-to-air missiles and fired anti-aircraft artillery. Iraq reported no casualties.
The lines are clearly being drawn between Iraq and the West. U.S. President George Bush called Hussein a "menace" and defended the bombing strikes on Iraq as a necessary response to Iraqi provocations. For his part, Hussein was quoted as saying, "If you care to keep your pilots and your planes from harm by the fire of the weapons of the active fighters, the believers of the great Iraq, then take your aircraft and battleships home and stop your violence toward Iraq."
Similar patterns
After a substantial quiet lull in Iraqi politics over the past several years, it is
interesting to note that the lines are being clearly drawn. A north-south relationship is
forming and an east-west line is being drawn. Interestingly, this is the very type of
relationship that is mentioned in the scriptures during the latter days. Quite possibly,
this could be one of the signs that our Master’s return is imminent.
George Rayner