Oil
- Problem and Opportunity
(Signs of the Time - October 2004)
According
to the International Energy Agency (IEA) an extra 3 million
barrels per day of oil production is needed to avoid another year of rising
oil prices. It is anticipated that, without this production increase,
the prices at the gas pumps will continue to rise.
Increasing production
The solution to our fuel problems seem to be simple – produce more
oil. An increase in production would help eliminate the high cost at the
pumps, while at the same time help increase the productivity of the ever-expanding
demand on the economy. The math is simple, the IEA, the West’s energy
watchdog, has calculated that a $10 decrease in oil prices would cause
global GDP growth to expand by 1/2 a percent. Unfortunately, Saudi Arabia
is the only OPEC producer with any significant spare capacity. All other
OPEC member nations are already pumping near 25-year highs. A Reuters
survey during September showed total August output from OPEC rose 100,000
barrels per day to 29.6 million bpd. Saudi Arabia raised supply to 9.5
million bpd, up 250,000 bpd. OPEC production is near its highest since
December 1979, just below the 29.76 million it pumped in November 2000.
“We expect oil demand will be around 2 million barrels per day
more in 2005 versus the average in 2004, so we need something like 3 million
barrels per day of additional capacity globally to avoid another year
of high prices,” a spokesman for the IEA told Reuters on the
eve of the 19th World Energy Congress in Sydney. He said improved political
stability in the Middle East would also be needed to temper prices.
Instability in Russia also affects oil prices. Oil prices bolted above
$45 a barrel after Russian oil giant Yukos said its output could suffer
because of a court ruling that froze some of its assets. The Yukos Oil
Company owes the Russian government $3.4 billion in back taxes for 2000,
and as a result is having difficulty making payroll, let alone producing
oil.
The struggle between Russia and Chechnya also affects oil prices. Given
the potential of what seem to be vast untapped deposits in the Caspian
Sea and the fact that the best pipeline route from the Caspian through
Russia to the West runs through the Chechan capital of Grozny, the odds
are that tensions between Russia and Chechnya will not soon disappear.
That will be the case even if constitutional matters dealing with regional
rights and the integrity of the Russian republic can be resolved.
Dead Sea oil?
The high price of oil is not bad news for everyone. Oil-rich Kuwait has
earned some $11.5 billion in oil income in the first five months of the
current fiscal year, exceeding revenue estimates for the whole year. Therefore
it would seem obvious to Israel that should they discover oil, additional
wealth would surely come their way. Isaiah 60:5 seems to indicate that
the Dead Sea shall bring forth an abundance of wealth: “Then
you shall see and become radiant, and your heart shall swell with joy;
because the abundance of the sea shall be turned to you, the wealth of
the Gentiles shall come to you” (NKJ).
The Dead Sea fault zone marks the boundary of tectonic plates separating
the African plate from the Arabian plate. It has been reckoned that after
the escape of the waters at the time of the flood, this deep fracture
trapped the mother-lode layer of petroleum which bled upwards to form
the asphalt and tar seeps in the region of Sodom and Gomorrah. It is also
noted that the Dead Sea is at the lowest point on earth and, as everyone
knows, fluids flow downhill. Thus, producing wells could not only tap
a substantial strike but could eventually drain the Arabian oil fields.
In 1985 Ness Oil (today Ness Energy) organized a consortium to drill at
the Dead Sea site, but the drill string sheared off at about one mile
depth. A subsequent drill to some 15,000-feet (close to three miles) came
up empty. Again, on October 13, 1998, the Israel Oil Company had granted
Ness drilling rights for 32,000 acres at the southwest end of the Dead
Sea. The first well was slated for April, 2000, at a cost of $30 million
and an expected depth of 19,000 feet. Once more, however, no significant
oil was found.
With prices now topping $45 per barrel, the folks at Ness Energy have
decided to have another look for Dead Sea oil. Ness believes Israel, in
particular the southwest end of the Dead Sea, is a place where “Science
and The Bible shake hands” and that they will achieve the vision
of the location and recovery of an abundant source of oil and gas in Israel.
If oil is indeed discovered in Israel it would provide additional reasons
for Israel to be invaded in these latter days. Yet so far Israel seems
to be void of oil. Despite this fact, we do know that this nation will
be invaded, plundered and saved by the hand of our Father in heaven. We
pray that this day may come quickly.
George Rayner