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Major Changes in the Middle East
(Signs of the Time - April 2005)
A series of dramatic changes began in February, 2005, when Rafik Hariri, the former Lebanese prime minister was assassinated by an extremely large car bomb. All fingers pointed to the government of Syria as the culprit.
Lebanese background
With the onset of WWI, the French and British sent armies and agents into
the Middle East to foment revolts in the Arabian Peninsula and to seize
Iraq, Syria and Palestine. In 1916, French and British diplomats secretly
reached the Sykes-Picot agreement, carving up the Middle East into spheres
of influence for their respective countries. That agreement was superseded
by another which established a mandate system of French and British control,
sanctioned by the new League of Nations. Under the mandate, Syria went
to the French. From this mandate the French carved out two distinct states,
Lebanon as a refuge for Maronite Christians and the Arab nation of Syria.
During the 1980’s, Lebanon was consumed with a civil war –
one that ended in 1991 via the Ta’if Accord -- the blueprint for
national reconciliation. However, during the past sixteen years Syria
has maintained a strong military presence in Lebanon, to the tune of some
16,000 troops. At first, Syria’s troop deployment was legitimized
by the Arab League during Lebanon’s civil war and in the Ta’if
Accord. Damascus justifies its continued military presence by citing Beirut’s
requests and the failure of the Lebanese government to implement all of
the constitutional reforms in the Ta’if agreement.
In 1982, Israel invaded Lebanon and occupied the southern half of the
country. They gradually pulled back, until in May, 2000, Israel withdrew
from southern Lebanon. The final Israeli withdrawal encouraged some Lebanese
groups to demand that Syria withdraw its forces as well. The United Nations
became involved in the dispute, and in October, 2004, resolution 1559
was passed by the General Assembly. The resolution called for Syria to
withdraw from Lebanon and end its interference in Lebanese affairs. To
date, this resolution has not been enforced.
Death of Hariri a catalyst
For the most part, the Syrians and Lebanese have lived together with minimal
disruption until the assignation of Hariri, who had just recently resigned
to protest the Syrian domination of Lebanon.
The reaction to the death of Mr. Hariri was swift. Protests filled the
streets and the United States immediately recalled their ambassador to
Syria. The New York Times reported on March 8, 2004: “United States
President Bush continued his effort to isolate and weaken Syria, and sought
to head off what appears to be an effort by Syria to play for time by
specifying what he meant by his previous demand that Syria withdraw from
Lebanon immediately and completely.
“Syria has so far agreed only to move its forces in Lebanon
toward Bekaa, near the Syrian border, by the end of March. The Syrian
president, Bashar al-Assad, said in a joint statement on Monday with his
Lebanese counterpart and ally, Émile Lahoud, that full withdrawal
would have to wait for negotiations with a future Lebanese government.
In his speech, Mr. Bush rejected that timetable, saying he wanted Syria
to have its military and intelligence forces out before Lebanon holds
parliamentary elections in May so the vote can proceed free of foreign
influence.”
Pro-Syrian protests
With the international community pressuring Syria to get out, Lebanon’s
Hezbollah party countered with a rally of their own. As reported on March
9, 2005, by the New York Times: “The enormous crowd, in which
many had been bused in from the Shiite slums of southern Beirut, was far
larger than the anti-Syrian demonstrations of recent weeks that have drawn
broad international support. It offered a defiant challenge to the Lebanese
opposition forces that have insisted on Syrian withdrawal and exposed
fault lines of class and ideology.”
“Today, you decide the future of your nation and your country;
today, you answer the world,” the Hezbollah leader, Sheik Hassan
Nasrallah, said in a rare and surprise appearance. Banners held aloft
read: “No to American-Zionist intervention. Yes to Lebanese-Syrian
brotherhood.”
Syria behind Hezbollah
Do the Lebanese people want the Syrians to stay or leave? If they do leave,
will peace come to the Middle East?
These questions can best be answered by understanding that Syria has funded
terrorism and in particular, the Hezbollah (Party of God) organization
for the past decade. Since Syria provides funding, Hezbollah terrorizes
Israel. By allowing the Hezbollah to operate out of Lebanon, Syria manages
to remain arm’s length from the terrorist activities of Hezbollah.
Quite possibly, if the United Nations is successful in forcing Syria out
of Lebanon, the Hezbollah may become an organization without funding and
without a home. If this should happen, further dramatic changes could
occur in the Middle East. More about this topic is considered in this
month’s editorial.
George Rayner