Epidemic,
Pandemic or Hype?
(Signs of the Time - November 2005)
In 1918 an influenza virus swept through the world, resulting in one of history’s most deadly epidemics. The influenza virus, referred to in scientific terms as H5N1, was found to be a bird flu – one that jumped directly to humans. The 1918 virus was highly infectious, and in recent weeks the fear that a transformation of one of the current bird flues could make it infectious in humans has prompted wide concern. This month’s article will look at the recent bird flu viruses that are sweeping Asia and consider whether or not this is a pending epidemic, a pandemic or just plain old hype.
Epidemic or
pandemic
Taken from Merrian-Webster’s dictionary, an epidemic is a disease
affecting or tending to affect a disproportionately large number of individuals
within a population, community, or region at the same time. A pandemic
is identical to an epidemic except that it occurs in a wide geographical
area, rather than a region or community. The 1918 virus can easily be
classified as a pandemic, in that some 50 million people in more than
20 different countries were killed. An article that appeared in the October
6, 2005, issue of The New York Times compared the 1918 virus to the one
prevalent today. “Since 1997, bird flocks in 11 countries have
been decimated by flu outbreaks. So far nearly all the people infected
-- more than 100, including more than 60 who died -- contracted the sickness
directly from birds. However, there has been little transmission between
people. The 1918 virus, in contrast, was highly infectious, and in recent
weeks the fear that a transformation of one of the current bird flus could
make it infectious in humans has prompted politicians of both major parties
to scramble to demonstrate that they are taking the threat of an avian
flu outbreak seriously.
“The bird flu viruses now prevalent share some of the crucial
genetic changes that occurred in the 1918 flu, scientists said, but not
all. The scientists suspect that with the 1918 flu, changes in just 25
to 30 out of about 4,400 amino acids in the viral proteins turned the
virus into a killer. The new work also reveals that the 1918 virus acts
much differently from ordinary human flu viruses. It infects cells deep
in the lungs of mice and infects lung cells, like the cells lining air
sacs, that normally would be impervious to flu. And while other human
flu viruses do not kill mice, this one, like today’s bird flues,
does.”
Until very recently, the 2005 version of the flu virus could only be classified
as an epidemic in that it was confined to the Asian region nations. However,
the New York Times reported that the 2005 version of the flu virus is
literarily flocking westward. “Asian bird flu appeared
to continue its westward spread this weekend with reports of two outbreaks
in birds in Europe. Romania reported its first cases of avian influenza
on Saturday, and Turkey today, both presumed to involve birds that migrate
from Asia in autumn.”
To limit the spread of bird flu, the authorities took hundreds of birds
from the farms and killed them and then declared a quarantine on the villages
and six counties in the area.
A vaccine
The obvious simple solution is to create a vaccine that is capable of
eliminating most, if not all, of the potential hazards. With this in mind,
U.S. President George Bush asked leaders of the world’s top vaccine
manufacturers -- Chiron, GlaxoSmithKline and Merck -- to come to the White
House to discuss preparations for pandemic flu. Bush was told there is
already a vaccine targeted to stop an epidemic; however, the vaccine does
not protect against the bird flu. Instead, the goal of the vaccine is
to try to prevent a human, who may be at risk for bird flu because of
close contact with birds, from becoming infected with normal seasonal
flu at the same time. Co-infection with the two types of virus is the
most likely route for the bird flu virus to acquire the ability to pass
readily from human to human, since conventional flu is highly contagious.
In the same body, flu viruses often exchange genes, creating new, more
deadly pathogens.
To date, most countries that encounter this virus take the sledgehammer
approach. In Turkey, an outbreak of bird flu occurred among turkeys on
a farm in the western part of the country, according to the Anatolia New
Agency. The village was put under quarantine and all birds and street
dogs were being killed as a precaution. In 1997 in Hong Kong’s tightly
packed farms and markets, more than a million birds were killed in a day.
In 2003, the disease spread to chicken farms in the Netherlands and in
order to control that outbreak, 30 million birds were killed at a cost
of 100 million euros, according to the Dutch Agriculture Ministry. Although
the mass killing approach is effective in defeating the virus, it is extremely
costly to the farmer, consumer and the government.
Until this year, scientists had believed that H5N1 flu moved from country
to country because of domestic poultry trade. With this in mind, the European
Union now bans poultry imports from Asia. However, cases of the deadly
strain appeared during the summer of 2005 among migratory fowl in China’s
western Qinghai Province. Given this discovery, scientists began to focus
more on the possibility that wild birds were important in spreading the
disease as well as domestic birds. Of course, this greatly complicates
the situation of stamping out birds who might be carrying the virus.
When Our Lord Jesus Christ was asked about the latter days he specifically
mentions that pestilence occurring in diverse places would be part of
these times (Matt. 24:7). If H5N1 becomes a pandemic, we will be witnessing
yet another sign of the days immediately prior to the return of our Lord
Jesus Christ.
George Rayner